Understanding Stage 3 Community Spread of COVID-19/Coronavirus using power function
The 2019-2020 infectious disease COVID-19/Coronavirus has brought the world to stand still. Economies are making their best efforts to contain the spread of the virus with compulsory 14 day quarantine, minimising air travel, contact tracing, frequent hand wash etc. Recently released normal distributions for problematic virus spread by CDC depicts how efficient healthcare systems can control the spread and bring back life to normal.
While the risk of acquiring the disease depends upon exposure to the virus, amount of exposure, proximity to infected person and most importantly immunity of a person. The virus becomes deadly for aged people leading to severe cases of pneumonia and multi-organ failure. Time from exposure to onset to symptoms is generally between 2 to 14 days, with an average of 5 days.
This particular novel virus has been declared as pandemic by World Health Organisation (WHO) with infections almost touching 200,000.
Understanding number of cases w.r.t time is important, so is the calculation of the power function. Higher the power function, more dangerous it is for the people to roam out in public freely. A sudden rise of the power function ( pf = log(cases a day before)/log(cases this day)), all in cumulative helps us study the likely spread, days of spread, next outbreak, clearance etc.
Below we have studied 4 cases, China, Italy, United States and India. The amount of information from the graph is likely to give us enormous knowledge in terms of the healthcare response, rapid growth and predicting the outbreak.
Outbreak in China (Days Counter : 54)
Community Outbreak Counts : Multiple( > 25 days)
Emergency Response. : Very Effective
Outbreak in United States (Days Counter : 52)
Community Outbreak Counts : Multiple ( >15 days)
Emergency Response. : Not much Effective
Outbreak in Italy (Days Counter : 44)
Community Outbreak Counts : Multiple ( > 5 days)
Emergency Response. : Effective
Outbreak in India (Days Counter : 42)
Community Outbreak Counts : Multiple (1- 5 days)
Emergency Response. : Can't conclude yet
Learning's & Conclusions :
1. Effective healthcare response, contact tracing, hygiene, least travelling if done properly, can dampen the virus spread. A spike less 30 day graph would depict containment of the virus spread.
2. United States : Has entered the containment time from over last 10-15 days. Another 15 days required to bring the life back to normal.
3. Italy : Has entered the containment time from over last 10-15 days. Another 15 days required to bring the life back to normal.
4. India : Has entered the containment time from over last 5 days. Another 25 days required to bring the life back to normal.
Using power function can be effective methodology to study contagious viruses. A need to consolidate healthcare professionals under a digital system is must for 21st centuries in order to predict upcoming healthcare unknowns.
Data Source : The Centre for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at John Hopkins University.
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